J2Ski Snow Report - March 30th 2017

Fair comment.
Whilst I partly agree I will not be risking another bad season in Chamonix. I may strike out either way but we'll see. That's skiing.
Whilst you are spot on about rocks at the top VB is crap skiing at present. Guides may find something to ski on but it will be mostly chopped up crud by now and not worth the effort. I am thinking the only people who think they are on a good thing at present are the desperados and those who have been reading media articles painting the VB as the best thing since sliced cheese.
We may have to agree to disagree with this one. I have been around for too long in too many countries to be fooled by the media machine. Not buying and will wait it out. Having said that it is likely that a big storm is yet to blow through and dump half a metre onto the mountain. That's the time to hit the mountain and enjoy what mother nature has given you.
Cheers.

"Next weekend"

123cm forecast for Chamonix.
154cm forecast for Soldeu.

Quick, quick!

Jeez guys, step away from the tin-foil hats. Your expectations of long-range forecasts are un-realistic and completely at odds with everything we ever say about them here!

Brucie wrote:"Next weekend"

123cm forecast for Chamonix.
154cm forecast for Soldeu.

Quick, quick!

If we did actually mis-represent the forecast the way you've just done (to be fair, there are sites out there that do this - but we don't), then you'd have a point.

This is what's on the (Chamonix) page right now...

J2Ski actually wrote:There is heavy snow currently indicated by the long-range (7 days+) forecast; but too far ahead to be relied upon.

and

J2Ski actually wrote:Mountain weather is extremely dynamic; the forecast below will change and should only be used as an indicator of the general trend. Any forecast snow may move forward or back in the forecast, and predicted snowfall depths will be revised in subsequent updates.

and

J2Ski actually wrote:The actual snow depth in Chamonix, on any given piste or itinerary, may be dramatically different, particularly if the snowfall is accompanied by high winds and/or varying air temperatures.
Snow Forecasts beyond two days ahead are subject to significant change and variable reliability.

Nature and weather do not follow a script. Weather is chaotic. Mountain weather especially so. You've spent time in the mountains so you know that.

Our forecasts are driven, as we've discussed before, by GFS and the way to view them is as the "latest best guess". They will change, often dramatically, from run to run and over the course of a ten day projection a small change in - for example - the track of a storm could shift it 300 miles compared to the previous run ("loadsasnow" -> "no snow" -> "loadsasnow" ). That's just how they work.

I've tried to explain some of it before, but clearly not well enough, so it'd be worth your while spending some of your summer time looking into how the forecast models work.

As we've said many, many times; a reliable long-range weather/snow forecast does not yet exist. As soon as it does, we'll have it here but don't hold your breath.


The right way to use the long-range forecasts

- Accept that they are dynamic and will change.
- Check them frequently and regularly; so you get the latest "best guess".
- Get a feel for how they're evolving...
- If they're swinging wildly then one of those outcomes is likely, but the models don't know which.
- If consistency builds from run to run then confidence can grow.

Anyone booking a holiday solely on the basis of a long-range forecast (ours or anyone else's) would be doing so against our clear advice (in this post and thousands of other pages), not because of it. You can certainly use consistent patterns - when they occur - to inform your decision, but the weather won't follow the script...

Clear enough?

Clear, but your explanation merely affirms our position. If its just a guess, why does it almost always indicate a heavy fall of snow?

Brucie wrote:why does it almost always indicate a heavy fall of snow?

It doesn't.

Check the first few locations on our "snowiest locations" list at https://www.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/. Not much snow in the forecast for much of the US at the moment is there?

As for Europe, next week is looking full of precipitation and quite possibly cold for April too.

Watch the GFS visualization on Ventusky; lots for The Alps and around the 18th a potential fizzer rolling a bunch into the Pyrenees...
https://www.ventusky.com/

...and that storm's a nice example; if subsequent model runs (or the eventual reality) push it slightly North then the snow now forecast for Andorra will end up being rain in Bordeaux.

Ventusky is nothing to do with us; but we think it's a very cool and easy way to get the big picture of the forecast model outputs.

I shall consult my spies in resort and let you know if the metre and a half materialises in Soldeu next weekend.

Brucie wrote:I shall consult my spies in resort and let you know if the metre and a half materialises in Soldeu next weekend.

Well, keep checking Ventusky in the meantime; that storm's a really nice illustration - if you see J2Ski's forecast swing the snow back out again, it'll be because GFS has decided the storm's going somewhere else (or fading completely).

It's tough being a weather forecaster. As they say in athletics: 'you're only as good as your last race'. Guess that might apply to financial market callers and weather callers as well.
I have noticed over the past decade that weather forecasts are mostly on the money so not sure why snow forecasts are mostly wrong.
I do hold serious doubts about the real estate industry (letting agents) subsidising websites and getting calls which are fanciful at best. Money speaks many languages and I am yet to be convinced that writing snow forecasts is not one of them.
Sorry to have a tin hat but just calling it like I see it.