Messages posted by : Mike from NS
This time difference thing makes curiosity a problematic aspect to the quizz. I'm on the way to the coffee too Pavel but had to stop to see what Ellistine had offered. And you're an hour earlier than I am. The quizz will have to be re-named to the International Springtime Pavel Quizz. ! Ellistine !!! Don't take it so seriousily - Pavel said it was to be fun and to enjoy! The Pavel Quizz teaches us that to pull our hair out over the first quizz means we won't have as much to pull out when the next quizz surfaces. And I'm glad you learned about the shotgun technique. ... but please don't point the shot gun at your head. That will only make future quizzes more difficult - not to mention skiing!. And again have you all noticed the viewing count! It's up to 1807, about 136 in the past 24 hours. I think that's remarkable for something that hs gone on for so long. You certainly have more than the 4 or 5 of us wondering what the answers will be Pavel. And as life slowly returns to normal...... Mike :D |
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Pavel; Congratulations !! Look at the number of numbers your Quizz has brought to the J2Ski site: 1850 views and 144 answers in the span of about 19 days !!! And these are all cardinal numbers! It was the clue ... "these numbers are nominal" that I missed. It threw me completely off. So much for impressive powers of observation ... I guess
When we rounded the tree I started to scramble since this meant we had made it. But how? These are my final numbers - my best guess numbers ... 1. January 1, 1999. This was my first day on skis. It is like a date of birth, or a marriage date. It stands out and I'll likely not forget it. It was a first day, like a first day of life, or a first day of marraiage... and just as nerve racking. The date hints indicated to me you accept a date as a nominal number. Knowing when I began skiing sets a bench mark from which to learn, and hopefully the experiences will bring me knowledge each time on skis. All skiers should know when they began skiing. Often a question on the chair lift too! 2. 911 As a number we all know, whether skiers or not. It is a number which makes us feel safe in hopes if we get in trouble in this dangerous sport then there is emergency help out there. It is like a number of a car registration plate or like a car we may have liked - like a Porsche 911 A skiing friend of mine had a Porsche 911 and when he passed it on he kept the Provincial registration plate of 911 for his next car. These are both examples of nominal numbers in that the identify something rather than indicate size or quantity. My 911 above is an identification number we associate with "HELP" And the clues of phone numbers was clear but some definitions of nominal numbers say serial , telephone and zip codes are not nominal as they are assigned in order rather chosen randomly as a name. Other sources say a telephone number is indeed a nominal number. So assuming since you included the hint of your son calling Ellistine if he had Ellistine's telephone number , and the clue of someone calling you - bringing to mind your telephone number then I assume you accept a telephone number as a nominal number. 3. SX9 As in atomic SX9 in which SX9 is the model of the ski and here 9 is a nominal number in that it is part of the model name of the ski. However 9 is also an indicator of the strength or flex of the ski and as such is a cardinal number if standing alone. And then as the 10 of SX10 indicates a stiffer ski then both 9 and 10 are ordinal numbers in that they might be said to rank the ski in order of stiffness. So we should know the number on our ski and what it means. 4. 101 I'm really weak with this one and admit it (not that the others are much stronger...) I'm calling the ski we want to "grow to" ski 101 in that the ski we ski on very confidently now is skied with 100%confidence. This represents the interval of confidence and "... some interval + "1" is the product of the Gaussian Distribution..." It is somewhere in the 95th percentile and the ski 101 is in that top 5percentile. As I said at the first my study of probilities and distributions was so long ago that I will stop here before I get in any more trouble on this one. 5. "2" is my 5th number as in "J2ski" as I indicated last night the clues shouted for more observation powers than I tghought I had. It was indeed right in front of our faces. Just up the page a bit. Also this page is called SKI FORUM INDEX. As you indicated an index lists things of complicated naturein a clear and concise way. Your ski reviews are an index of what available in the next year 2 is used here as part of a name and is therefore a nominal number. Your index lists your reviews of ski specifications of length, side cut, radius, probably weight suitable for skier's levels and all the things we look for when we look for a ski. All this information is simplified in a concise manner with recommendations, I expect. So we see on the J2Ski site index of forums where there is no end of matters which are "all about the ski" It is indeed the most important number as it is a source of endless knowledge. When people learn to "use" this site they will enjoy skiing and learning at the same time. Thank you for your patiance and another tantallizing quizz. I just wish I had some better answers. There is nothing more stimulating than a good mind bending quizz like you generate. I have had a few forehead - palm of the right hand encounters with this ... and expect more Friday. Whether these numbers are anywhere close it has been fun. And it has been great meeting Ellistine, Dshenberger. Agusl and Freezywater. Some day we will all end up at the same hill and have a great laugh over this quizz and our frustrations. Looking forward to the answers... where the learning will begin. Have a great trip to the coast. Mike :wink: |
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I have just had a forehead - palm of my hand encounter I wanted to share with thsoe following this quizz. And since I'm out of amo this one is tossed gently. One of the magic numbers I'll present with my others on Thursday morning ( unless I can come up with something better ) is indeed right in front of our faces ... if fact if you would all scroll to the top of the page and look to the upper left corner you will see a magic number which is all about the ski and in front of our faces. The number is "2" as in J2SKI. In this context "2" is a nominal number and this page has brought lots of magic and new friendships. I hope this is one of the magic numbers... we'll see on Friday. Mike :wink: |
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pavelski wrote: Congratulations Mike
Thank you Pavel! At least I have that claim !! My 5 final numbers will be posted Thursday morning before 9am ADT or noon on the UK clock ... ohhh just like eBay! Then the real learning will begin when we see the numbers "revealed". So far we have been reasoning, thinking, and re-thinking, for the most part. We will only learn when we see what our mistakes have actually been. We all must feel each of our offerings have had some magical value - or we would not have offered them. Some numbers are magical to the individual and not another (just like a rainbow ... each time we see a rainbow - it is our very own. No-one else sees it. They see their own. Due to the geometry involved our rainbow is unique to us.) So it will be good to learn these magic numbers ( which must be very general). I'm feeling like the current Suzuki television ad ..."thinking I can handle it..." Another day or so of waiting that is .... I know I'm out of amo and will try to scrape up enough gun powder for the final number set. Mike :P |
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Ahhhhh, here we are with just a couple of days left in the quizz period. And my mind is still churning. What have we missed ???
The November hint is still of great concern. What happens in November... why the hint and specifically November. As I have concluded the magical thing about November must be the magic that is brought on when we see the reviews of the next year's skis. It is like it is in September when the next year's car models come out. There is something exciting and magical with the anticipation that is in the air. So maybe the "8" clue (if it actually was a hint and the two Novembers do if fact refer to 2008. 2008 will be the next model year for the gear and the news of this equipment is being made known in November (with all the magic this news brings). And this makes 11 another magic number. If 4 can represent April for the best time to buy, why not can't 11 represent November as the time to study the reviews? Boy that elastic band is just about stretched to the limit!! What do you all think :?: I'm just about all "reasoned" out. Mike :) PS: And again I find I have deleted a post :!: I must strike the "EDIT" button when I think I'm striking the "Quote" button. Guess this new guy isn't quite up on working the site properly yet. What I deleted was just a preamble to my latest "guess" at the 5th number being "95". Nothing lost really. :!: |
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Dean, Sometimes I haven't time to re-read it myself! Did you go Pimlico for the Preakness? That was a close race at the end!!! Mike |
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Ohhh, careful Ellistine. Isn't it better to have an open mind and an open skill set so that we can tackle anything we put our mind to? About 6 or 7 years ago I first read Pavel's wise offerings on another ski site. He had mentioned that he frequented a certain hill in Canada. This hill posted a "daily picture" and one day (almost at season's end) the picture was of a man and a lady. The man resembled the description Pavel had offered of himself in the vaguest of terms. The man in the picture was clutching a snowboard. My first reaction or thought was "Could this be the great Pavel of whom I had been reading The Pavel with skiing techinique and tuning tips?" But he had a snowboard !! Couldn't be... say it's not so... So I posted the question on the site I knew he frequented and it turned out to in fact be our great mentor in the springtime picture. These were the days when I was asking if were better to wax the skis with red candle wax or white candle wax. A long time ago - well before I was introduced to the Pavel quizz and long before I had the good fortune to meet him. So skiing may be the way we like to get down the hill right now but who knows what tomorrow might bring! I'd love to try it but the winters are too short and I never tire of the skis! Mike :lol: |
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I think I have knocked the best parts of the thought right out of my mind from all the banging on the forehead ... :( But here goes for the 5th number. This 5th number is used in conjunction with the Pavel Index. The Pavel Index is a list of the test results through his own "secret" method of Multiple Comparisons . It includes all the parameters of the ski ( flex, sidecut, radius, weight, length, and all the physical elements we base our selection upon) for comparision in different catageories then the index presents the findings in a ranking system as related to skier's ability. Now come November we are getting into high gear and preparing for the new season (even though we should have done this in April) We are studying the reviews and ski guides. In order to plan in a practical and realistic means for real situations we use the 95th percentile as a guide for ski selection. This is a good number to use for planning so that we can ensure we have what's needed for 95% of the time. In my "research" I found this: " ... 95 is a magic number used (in networking) because you have to plan for the most of the time case...." Therefore I'm saying we use 95 to calulate the ranking of the best of ski as set out in the Pavel Index. We then take from the PI those ranked skis for our first choice list. We find the skis ranked in this percentile by the equation; R = .01P (N + 1) where R is the ranking of the sampled ski on Pavel's index; P is the 95% magic number value; N is the number of skis Pavel has sampled, reviewed and ranked in his Index. His index is like the ski guides we study in November as we really start thinking about skiing. So 95 is my 5th magic number .... for now at least. It is all statiistics based on lots of sampling and the way Pavel may have conducted his "Multiple Comparisions by Rerandomization tests". It was amoung the first of the hints. It is not that we are part of the 95% of skiers it is that we will be part of the 5% that are above ... And that's enough damage for one day. :wink: Mike |
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