Messages posted by : admin
Harsh... but probably fair. I suspect Google Translate had a hand in there, and I for one welcome our AI Overlords. ...I'm quite looking forward to generating G-Forces at fast-bicycle speed this season... :lol: The original post is over a year old, so hopefully the poster has progressed by now. |
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J2Ski Snow Report - November 15th 2018
Started by User in Snow Forecasts and Snow Reports, 11 Replies |
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Well it's just a guess but I suspect the National Hurricane Center has a little more processing power and budget than we do! And while it makes sense to "blend" multiple models to predict all possible paths for a hurricane it really makes no sense to average multiple forecasts for a single location. Don't shoot the messenger; here's Ventusky's visualization of the GFS-forecast precipitation out to Monday You can switch to GEM, which has a similar outlook albeit with a little less precipitation (those are "rain" figures on the animation so roughly x10 for snow). |
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J2Ski Snow Report - November 15th 2018
Started by User in Snow Forecasts and Snow Reports, 11 Replies |
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We use GFS (Global Forecast System) data, localised for us by a 3rd party who apply topographical effects, from which we produce our info.
There are a handful of major models (e.g. GFS, ECM, GEM, ICON, UK Met Office, etc.) that drive the vast majority of weather forecasts you can find. Each one updates multiple times a day, and different services take different approaches to how they process, summarise and display the data - so you'll see slight differences even when the same original model was used.
You can't (assuming you don't own a time machine, of course). If any one model stood out as being significantly more reliable than the others, then everyone would use it. That's just not the case with today's technology. The first key thing to always remember is that a forecast isn't telling you what WILL happen; it's just showing you what the latest run of the forecast model indicates is the most likely outcome of many possibilities. The second thing is that the forecast will change, sometimes substantially, from one run to the next - several times a day. The shorter the timescale, the more those possibilities converge and the more "accurate" the forecast becomes. Similar questions come up regularly, and it's definitely worthwhile taking the time to explore how the forecast models work... you can see some of the complexity (and switch between different model outputs) at the excellent Ventusky Beware of charlatans :- there are weather sites that claim to have "accurate long-range forecasts". They're lying! |
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J2Ski Snow Report - November 15th 2018
Started by User in Snow Forecasts and Snow Reports, 11 Replies |
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Hi Dave - if you scroll up the page, you'll see a blue bar with a button that says Daveall Profile on it; click that and you'll see the options. |
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J2Ski Snow Report - November 15th 2018
Started by User in Snow Forecasts and Snow Reports, 11 Replies |
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J2Ski Snow Report 15th November 2018
Skiing under a blue sky, Hintertux this week... J2Ski Snow Report 15th November 2018 Pre-season snow, mixed with autumnal warmth this week, with cold coming into the forecast. November 15th Snow Headlines - Obergurgl opens for the season - Vail opens early for the ski season - Heavy snow in Quebec - Canada's ski season underway - Val Thorens Cancels pre-opening weekend - Heavy snow in Chile - Levi and lake Louise OK to stage world Cup races over coming weekends. It's been the usual Autumn roller-coaster of weather conditions over the past week with the storms that brought up to two metres of snow to high slopes in the Alps at the start of the month giving way to unseasonably warm temperatures for a while (cooler air is forecast). The main result of this in the short term is Val Thorens deciding to cancel its planned pre-season weekend this Friday. Across the Atlantic, resorts are continuing to open early for the season with some Colorado resorts already claiming this is the best start to the season there in a decade. Canada's 2018-19 season also got underway at the weekend with four ski areas in Alberta opening. In the Alpine Forecast A distinct turn to cold, with the possibility of significant snowfall in the last week of November, is now on the cards for the Alps; with the current high pressure system expected to move North to allow much colder air to push in from the East. We'll have more detail on that next week; it looks promising, but too far out to be sure at the moment. 
See where it's expected to snow this week... (and, yes, that's Greece looking to get some snow!)
EUROPEAN ALPS Austria The number of ski areas open in Austria has finally reached double figures with Obergurgl opening for its 18-19 season today (Thursday 15th November). It joins the country's eight glacier areas, most of which have already clocked up six weeks or more of the season, and Kitzbuhel, still operating with snow saved (or 'farmed') from last season. Obergurgl has 15km of runs open served by about 10 lifts, but several of the glaciers, particularly Hintertux and Solden, have around 20-25km open, so still rather more available high up. France Val Thorens reports temperatures too warm and conditions a bit windy so has taken the decision to cancel a planned pre-opening weekend this coming weekend and focus on its main season opening a week on Friday. It reports the snow great above 2700m but a gap between that level and the resort itself. Chamonix also planned to open this weekend and so far hasn't said it won't be doing so it looks like it and already-open Tignes will be the two choices there this Saturday. A third possibility, Porté Puymorens, opened last weekend in the French Pyrenees, but it is looking less certain it will again this weekend. Italy There's little change in Italy either with Solda/Sulden and Val Senales/Schnalstal open plus Cervinia accessing the ski area it shares with neighbouring Zermatt. There's been no fresh snow reported here either but conditions are good in the sunshine. Livigno is set to join the club imminently and reports its slopes in excellent condition. Switzerland With the unexpected opening of Verbier at the weekend there are six centres currently operating (although some, including Verbier, currently only at weekends). Year-round Zermatt and 9-months-a-year Saas Fee have the most terrain open, each with around 25km of runs, but there's also some skiing open on the Diavolezza glacier near St Moritz, on the Titlis glacier at Engelberg and at Glacier 3000 between Les Diablerets and Gstaad. Sunny here too. Scandinavia It's been a bit too warm for many new areas to open in Scandinavia this past week either and the tally remains at about half-a-dozen with Narvik and Kvitfjel in Norway, Idre Fjall in Sweden and Levi and Ruka in Finland all open for the season. Ruka is in to its second month already in fact and Levi is gearing up to host the first races in the FIS Slalom World Cup tour this weekend (with Dave Ryding in action for TeamGB). Pyrenees After the snowy start to November which saw Porté Puymorens in the French Pyrenees become the first non-glacier resort to open, and Masella on the Spanish side post its earliest ever opening in its 60 year history, things have warmed up a lot in the Pyrenees. The early cover has largely thawed and it's unclear how much longer these two areas will be able to keep operating before the next snows arrive. Scotland Warm weather in the UK has melted most of the early mountain snow cover from Scottish hills and it looks to be staying warm for at least the next week. Three of the five highland ski areas now have all weather snow-making systems in place however so a late November/early December opening of at least some terrain looks likely, whatever the weather. Eastern Europe There's been some snowfall reported on high slopes in Romania and elsewhere on the eastern side of Europe but so far no reports of any areas planning to open before December. North America Canada Canada's ski season got underway last Friday with the three Banff resorts of Sunshine, Norquay and Lake Louise all opening, as did 'Calgary's closest resort' Nakiska. A fifth Alberta area, Marmot Basin near Jasper, is scheduled to join them this weekend. Cover is so far rather limited but the fact that Sunshine, one of the few major ski areas in the world still operating without snow-making could open is clearly a good sign. On the East coast there's been up to 40cm of snow reported in Quebec and several areas are opening this weekend including Mont Saint-Sauveur. USA The US continues to enjoy a good start to the season in most areas. More resorts have been opening in Colorado and New England but resorts in the Midwest in states like Wisconsin and Minnesota are also now opening as well as areas in Montana and on the southern side, New Mexico, where they've also had good early snowfalls and snow-making conditions. Vail has opened early (on Wednesday 14th) after 1.2m of snowfall in the past month there, and we've just heard that Aspen Mountain will open this Saturday (17th November) and Snowmass will open next Thursday (22nd November). |
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You still can... Who's Going Where? 8) |
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J2Ski Snow Report 8th November 2018
A little snow on the ground, waiting for more, at Les Arcs, France J2Ski Snow Report 8th November 2018 Snowfall eases, and temperatures rise a little, but more ski areas open... November 8th Snow Headlines - Breckenridge, Keystone and Eldora open early for the season in Colorado. - French ski area in Pyrenees jumps ahead of resorts in Alps to be second in country to open. - Mammoth delays planned opening this Thursday due to warm weather. - Canada's 2018-19 ski season starts on Friday. - Half a dozen areas now open in Scandinavia between Finland, Norway and Sweden. - Ski season starts in the Pyrenees and even Portugal. Things have quietened down a little in the Alps after the big snowfalls at the start of last week, although there have been more smaller snowfalls at many areas. Saas fee, for example, reported 30cm (a foot) more snowfall on Tuesday. The build up to winter 2018-19 is continuing and there'll be more than 50 ski resorts open this coming weekend in the Alps, Pyrenees, Dolomities, Scandinavia and across North America. In fact the lone ski area in Portugal as well as Masella in the Spanish Pyrenees posted their earliest ever season openings last week, the latter the first to open in the Pyrenees, although it will be joined by a French resort this coming weekend. Canada will kick off its season on Friday with four resorts in Alberta opening, and Colorado to the south is seeing its 'pre-winter' get better and better with more resorts opening early there and six open this weekend in the state. The news isn't entirely good though, Mammoth is the first resort to set back its planned opening on Thursday November 8th due to warm weather, but it is still the start of November. In the Alpine Forecast A little more snow at high altitude is expected in places, with generally clear and mild weather prevailing for the next week or so. 
See where it's expected to snow this week...
EUROPEAN ALPS Austria After last weeks' snowfall on glacier slopes in Austria things have quietened down a little here with some perfect blue sky, powder days. For another week at least it's the country's eight glacier ski areas, plus Kitzbuhel, that are open, but following that the remainder of Austria's ski areas are due to begin opening starting with Obergurgl (from next Thursday 15th) and Obertauern (from Wednesday 21st). Currently the glaciers are looking to be in their best shape since last spring, most now with at least a metre of snow lying on upper slopes and with more terrain open thanks to the fresh snow cover. Solden has the deepest at 1.8m with 31km of runs open, Hintertux the most terrain open 36km) with a 110cm base. France Tignes remains the only ski area open in France and here conditions have continued to improve with the fresh snow of the past fortnight – 40cm more has been recorded in the past week taking base depths up to the metre mark up on the glacier – a greatly improved picture on a month ago. There's been an interesting twist however as a second French area has announced plans to open ahead of the scheduled big resort openings of Chamonix and Val Thorens the weekend after next. It's not in the alps either, Porte-Puymorens in the French Pyrenees has reported lots of fresh snow over the past fortnight and plans to open "at least two sectors" this weekend. Italy Italy has been getting the brunt of the storms of the past 10 days and with flooding and other problems at lower elevations the snow up high isn't a high priority in the country right now. However there are four ski areas currently open in the country with the Presena Glacier at Passo Tonale and the slopes of Solda in the South Tyrol the latest to open at the weekend, joining Cervinia and Val Senales. With the Passo Stelvio summer ski area forced to close a week early, due to snow there making access impossible, the Presena Glacier's 2.3m base is currently the deepest in the country. Switzerland A number of areas including Engelberg and Verbier opened for the first time this season last weekend following heavy snowfall last week and getting lots of media attention as a result. The full list of Swiss areas now open, at least at weekends, is starting to get quite lengthy therefore, with Andermatt, Davos, Glacier 3000 near Gstaad and the Diavolezza glacier near St Moritz joining long-time-open Saas Fee and Zermatt. These latter two have some of the deepest snow in the world at present reporting 3m (10 foot) bases and powder cover up top. Scandinavia About half a dozen ski areas have now opened in Norway, Sweden and Finland – all with just one or two runs open and fairly thin cover, typically 5-30cm, so far. These include Beitostolen, Kvitfjell and Bjorli in Norway; Idre Fjall in Sweden and Levi and Ruka in Finnish Lapland. Pyrenees As mentioned earlier, Masella on the Spanish side of the Pyrenees opened at the weekend; its earliest ever season start. And as mentioned in our French section the first resort to open in the French Pyrenees is set to open this weekend too – it's rare for two ski areas in the Pyrenees to be open this early in November. Scotland Temperatures have shot up in to double figures again in the Scottish Highlands, taking out much of the October hill snow that was lying. On the upside however The Lecht has confirmed it will open in early December thanks to its purchase of an all-weather snow factory snow making machine and Glencoe and Cairngorm have the same machines. Eastern Europe There are no reports of any ski areas open in Eastern Europe so far. North America Canada The start of the season is upon us in Canada with at least four ski areas including all three Banff areas and Nakiska, the closest centre to Calgary, all saying they'll open this Friday 9th, November. Lake Louise is one of those due to open on Friday (it is scheduled to stage the first World Cup downhill races at the end of this month). Most (except Sunshine) are relying on their snow-making though there's been some good early snowfalls too so it's mostly looking all white. USA It's a mixed picture in the US with some resorts opening early, with others delaying planned opening dates - which is fairly normal for this time of year. Colorado is having a great start to the winter with three more ski areas opening, all earlier than planned, on Wednesday, and the snow still falling. It's all very different to a year ago when things started bad and didn't really let up until the spring. This year though Breckenridge, Keystone and Eldora all opened early, with the first two originally due to open this weekend, Eldora not for another 10 days. Therefore six Colorado areas are now open with bases in the 60-80cm bracket, including Loveland which has been posting powder alarms this week for more than 20cm of snow in 24 hours on several days running. Less good news in California though where Mammoth, which was due to open on Thursday, has delayed doing so with no fresh date given, due to warm temperatures. Elsewhere the same half dozen resorts on the East coast and a few other US locations remain open, mostly at weekends – including Killington, Sunday River, Mount Snow and Wildcat Mountain in the East. |
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J2Ski Snow Report 1st November 2018
Verbier reported 60cm of fresh this week... J2Ski Snow Report 1st November 2018 Some huge snowfalls in Europe, with more to follow but milder weather following. November 1st Snow Headlines - Ski areas in the Alps report up to 175cm of snow in biggest October snowfall of century. - Passo Stelvio summer ski area in Italy ends season early after 1.5m snowfall blocks access road. - What's believed to be a record 9 ski areas open in the USA in October. - Verbier announces partial opening (weekends only) from this Friday. - Resorts opening this weekend include Bjorli in Norway and Sulden in Italy. - Snow falls across Europe, from Portugal to Finland. - Up to 40cm of fresh snow falls in 24 hours in Canada. - Snow in the Pyrenees where one French resort announces it will open mid-November. What a difference a week makes! As forecast, an extremely active weather front moving down from the Arctic has brought a sudden dip in temperature after months of mostly hot weather in the Alps. The results have included torrential rain at lower altitudes, gale force winds and heavy snowfall. Glaciers that were struggling to open terrain less than a week ago have received several feet of snow, in some cases as much as 1.8m (six feet) although most have had a still impressive 30-60cm so far, with the snow still falling at some. More snow is forecast over the coming week with some areas expecting up to another metre to start November. However the big falls are up high – Bormio, for example, reports 1.8 metres fell at 3000 metres over three days but that this was rain down at resort level = 0cm of snow there. It's not just the Alps either, ski areas from Portugal to Scotland and Scandinavia have been posting images of their slopes well covered, and the Pyrenees have done especially well it seems, with resorts reporting 20-40cm of snow there. Across the Atlantic there's been more snow too with another 20-30cm in New England at the end of last week and more recently some 30-40cm snowfalls on the Western side of the continent. At least nine ski areas ended up opening in the US for the final weekend of October, a number not seen before in recent memory this early in the 'season'. In the Alpine Forecast The current snow will clear much of The Alps by the weekend, with milder, clearer weather to follow - although further significant snowfall is expected to the South; in the Aosta Valley in particular. 
See where it's expected to snow this week...
EUROPEAN ALPS Austria With all of Austria's eight glacier ski areas now open, along with Kitzbuhel, there are no additional new areas known to be planning to open this weekend, or indeed for a few weeks more until the mass of Austrian resorts begin to open from mid-November on, with Obergurgl and Obertauern likely to be among the first. There has been fresh snow though; the glaciers have received 40-70cm of new snow so are now in much better shape, and more snow, if not such large amounts, is forecast through the rest of the week. Some ski areas are currently closed due to high winds and/or logistical issues caused by all the snow, but should be in great shape once the weather clears. In Kitzbuhel, which is coming up to its fourth weekend of operations already using snow saved from last season up on the Rasterkogel slopes, they're scheduled to open another front, with additional skiing on their main Hahnankamm mountain. France Ski areas in France missed most of the high altitude snowfalls in August and September but the past week has seen some big snowfalls at last; particularly welcomed by now-open Tignes which issued a 'powder alarm' for 20cm of new snow in 24 hours on Tuesday. Other French resorts planning to open from mid-late November or even December have been gleefully posting snowy images too although few are measuring accumulations as yet. Italy Italy's Passo Stelvio was one of the big winners – and losers - from the snowfall, reporting a metre falling over the weekend there and now one of the deepest bases in the world up to 3.5 metres. Unfortunately this has led the authorities who keep the road open in summer to decide to close it a week earlier than planned, leading to the premature closure of the ski area until next spring. An end of season ski festival had been planned there this weekend but that's now cancelled. Currently open though are Val Senales and Cervinia providing access to the glacier ski area it shares with neighbouring Zermatt. There's been plenty of fresh snow at these two areas too. Another Italian area, Sulden, has announced it will open Thursday, November 1st, following all the snow there. Bormio has reported the biggest snowfall so far with 1.8m (six feet) of snowfall measured up top but at time of writing it's unclear if it will open early in the next few days or weeks as it has in passed years. Switzerland Switzerland's Diavolezza glacier near St Moritz has posted the second greatest snow accumulation since Saturday at 175cm – or a few inches less than six feet. Year-round Zermatt issued a powder alarm for 40cm of snow on Tuesday and Saas Fee (currently closed due to the snow) is also looking, well, snowy. More snow is expected here over the next few days. Up to five more Swiss ski areas look set to open this Saturday. So far confirmed are Andermatt, Engelberg and Verbier with Davos (which already has some cross country terrain open)) and Glacier 3000 near Gstaad looking like they might well but at time of writing yet to confirm. Scandinavia It's looking 'mostly good' for ski areas in Scandinavia although, as far as we can ascertain, only Ruka in Lapland is open at present. Temperatures have been hovering below zero, snow cannons have been firing and there has been some fresh snow, just not a huge amount as yet. The first Norwegian ski area to confirm opening for the season, this weekend, is Bjorli. Pyrenees It has been a snowy week in the Pyrenees and indeed the entire Iberian peninsula with Sierra Nevada down on Spain's south coast reporting over a foot of snow and even a big accumulation at Serra da Esterella, Portugal's only ski area. Resorts in the Pyrenees though have posted 20-50cm accumulations and one French area, Porte Puymorens, has announced it will open in a fortnight on November 17th at the same time as Chamonix and Val Thorens are scheduled to start their seasons. Scotland Some great snowy images from Scotland this week where it has been largely sub-zero since Sunday and what precipitation there has been has been falling as snow. Some freeriders have been hiking up to make first turns but as yet no areas have opened, although the Lecht, which has top-to-bottom snow coverage and now possesses an all weather snowmaking machine, has opened for Halloween before. Warmer, wet and windy weather is forecast in the Highlands this weekend so it's likely the current snow cover will be depleted. Eastern Europe There's been some more snow in higher slopes in Eastern Europe too but it seems there's little sign as yet of any opening for several more weeks. North America Canada Canada's season opening day is getting closer after ski areas in Western Alberta reported 40cm of fresh snow on Tuesday - it looks like it could be this weekend (but TBC). Nakiska, the closest ski area to Calgary, has 'tentatively' said they'll open the 3rd/4th November, this weekend, but at time of writing have still not decided either way. They may have done by the time you're reading this. Otherwise Sunshine, Mt Norquay and Lake Louise all expect to open next week, as does Marmot Basin up near Jasper. USA A remarkable nine US resorts were open last weekend, possibly a record for October, and with ski areas open from New Hampshire (Wildcat), Vermont (Mont Snow and Killington) and Maine (Sunday River) in the East to California on the West (Mt Rose) along with four resorts in Colorado (Arapahoe Basin, Loveland and Wolf Creek) and Idaho in between. Several were making their earliest ever openings. Most were relying primarily on snowmaking but it has kept dumping in the Rockies with Wolf Creek, the first in the continent to open more than a fortnight ago now, issuing a powder alarm on Wednesday for another 37cm (15 inches) of snowfall in the previous 24 hours on top of the metre or so its had already this month. There have been some good falls in New England too. No more US ski areas are known to be planning to open this coming weekend at present, but Mammoth, Breckenridge and Keystone are lined up to open in just over a week's time. |
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