Messages posted by : admin
Mark - there's no such thing as a reliable forecast (snow or otherwise) for a month ahead. Anyone who claims otherwise is lying or deluded. The first week in December is pretty much impossible to call at the moment, let alone Christmas week. See our Outlook for December 2016, posted this morning, for some of the reasons why. Once we're into December, things should become clearer. Brucie will be our "eyes on the ground" shortly so will be able to tell it like it really is! 8) |
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8) Hopefully the goat-herds can tell you what they've heard from their herds, and what's been heard from other herds of goats who've heard it from their goat-herds. Always good to have heard a second-hand herd opinion. Probably a grapevine involved there too... |
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Some of you have noticed the long-range snow forecasts (for the first half of December) have been somewhat dynamic recently; one day forecasting lots of snow, then little, etc.
I've also had an email asking if it's going to be really mild in December... So here are some thoughts... 8) First off, remember that forecasting snow amounts for more than a week ahead really is fraught with challenge. It crops up regularly but always worth remembering that some of the biggest snowfalls occur along the boundaries (fronts) between weather systems - the classic scenario being warm, moist air from the South meets icy cold air from the North over the mountains (bingo!). We talk of bands of snow along these boundaries; mobile bands of snow give us lighter snow over a wider area, slow moving (or even stationary) bands of snow can give huge but quite localized falls. So the exact tracks of the major weather systems is what matters for us; if they vary just a little then the snow forecast for a particular location can change completely (from huge snow to no snow and vice versa). Right now, the forecast models are juggling conflicting outcomes driven by numerous factors including a weak Polar Vortex, the vagaries of the Jetstream, and the possible development and/or collapse of arctic blocking. A good illustration of the model uncertainty can be seen in the current GFS ensemble chart for Geneva included below. The various lines are model runs with slight changes in input parameters. - You can see they're all consistent until the end of November - so we can have a high level of confidence that the average of those runs is a pretty good forecast. - But they scatter at the beginning of December - telling us there's very low confidence in any one of those outcomes being correct. One of them will likely be close to reality, but we don't know which. FWIW, it does look as if December's going to bring plenty of snow (lower set of lines), but the rain/snow line is unclear at the moment. 
One other point to remember :- there are various "temperature anomaly" charts available; in general, these show you the difference between the forecast temperature and the seasonal average temperature. Even if they indicate a +2C anomaly, that just means 2C milder than the seasonal average... so still pretty cold in December! Similarly, although you can see the average temperature predicted by the ensemble above (the upper white line) is around 5C at the end of December; that is in Geneva which is 1,000m below where you'll be skiing! 8) I'll update this thread as the December forecast becomes clearer, but it looks promising from here. References If you want more (about the Polar Vortex and Arctic Oscillation), there's good in-depth coverage here https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation |
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J2Ski Snow Report 24th November 2016
Sunrise at Alpe d'Huez this morning Hello again, This week has seen a mix of weather, with mild temperatures at times, a pesky Fohn wind in some parts of The Alps melting snow below 2000m... but more snow elsewhere - and more cold and snow to come. This Week's Snow Headlines - More huge snowfalls expected for the coming week in the Alps. - Zermatt opens more than 100km of piste. - 16-17 Season due to start in Pyrenees this weekend. - Mass opening of US resorts as cold weather arrives in time for Thanksgiving. - Most ski areas are now open in Scandinavia. - World's deepest reported snow base reaches 2.5m (and it's still November). The run in to the 2016-17 ski season continues to excite with more significant snowfalls forecast for the Alps after considerable snow already during the first three weeks of this month. The snow is also falling in the Pyrenees, Scandinavia, Scotland and now, at last, across North America where dozens of ski areas have been opening across the US (and a few in Canada) ahead of the Thanksgiving Day long-weekend there. In the Forecast Temperatures, currently a little above seasonal averages, look set to drop - sharply in the East - through the next week. It's currently snowing in The Pyrenees, and heavy falls are expected in parts of the Northern Alps and the Aosta Valley this weekend, with further outbreaks of snow following. After a few relatively clear, but cold, days it's beginning to look like December is going to start with a very wintry couple of weeks. The forecast models have been very dynamic this week and have been throwing out a range of potential weather outcomes in the medium term... with the vast majority being snowy, and some being very snowy indeed! Going Skiiing? Send us your Pictures! If you're in the mountains, please show us your snow! We've recently added an easy-to-use way to quickly send us a photo and a snow report, so please visit Snow Reports from Ski Resorts for more. Early Season Caveats Apply :- Some early-opening resorts are opening only for the weekends at present; so check before travelling! Also, as usual at this time of year, official snow reports are somewhat sporadic; most resorts are not yet fully-staffed and only a few are reliably reporting snow depths. And finally, please take care; lots of new snow (on a young base) will mean high Avalanche Risk in places; take local advice, and conservative lines! But enjoy.
The Alps Austria After leading the world for two months, the opening rate of Austrian resorts slows as many don't traditionally open until mid-December or even the weekend before Christmas. However conditions on the slopes across the country continue to look great with around a dozen areas now open, and Ischgl due to join the list with its big opening this weekend, marking the start of its five month long season. On the glaciers snow depths are now up to 1.2m (4 feet) at resorts including Pitztal and Solden and the Kitzsteinhorn Glacier above Kaprun reported 10cm of fresh snow on Tuesday and has announced that it has opened its superpipe. Of the non-glacier ski areas Schladming says it already has a 1m base, and Kitzbuhel 60cm. France The snow has kept falling in the French Alps and it's looking like there's only more ahead, much more. Last weekend Chamonix reported another 60cm (two feet) of snow at altitude, 15cm in the village, which has a very mid-winter look to it now. The big opening this weekend is Val Thorens, with over 10,000 expected to attend the festivities following its 'early preview' opening last weekend. So far there's no news of any other areas expecting to open early but Alpe d'Huez, La Clusaz and Chamonix will all be open again and Tignes will be approaching the start of the third month of its 16-17 season. Bases are looking much healthier than three weeks ago and Chamonix claims the deepest in the world so far at 2.5m up top. Italy In Italy the coming weekend is a big one for the country's ski business and happily it's looking the best for three years with some natural snow cover and cold enough weather through most of November for snow cannons to cover the slopes. Many of the country's best known resorts – Cervinia, Cortina, Livigno, Madonna di Campiglio, Val Gardena amongst them – have already opened, at least at weekends, but this Saturday sees the mass opening of most areas in Dolomiti Superski and at many other areas. Livigno, by the way, is currently running its gondola to its open ski slopes free of change in a 'Black Friday week' special. Cervinia, with a 130cm base, has the deepest snow cover reported in the country a present and reported fresh snow earlier this week. Cervinia and the surrounds should see around half a metre of snow in the next two days. Switzerland Conditions look good on Swiss slopes too with almost all of the country's leading resorts now open or opening soon. At Samnaun in the East it's the annual Santa Claus World championships coming up this weekend to mark the start of the season and of cross-border skiing to Ischgl. Zermatt's 100km of cross-border skiing to Cervinia in Italy is one of the bigger ski areas open in the world at present and its 1m base is among the country's deepest although Crans Montana, Glacier 300 and Zermatt's neighbour Saas Fee are all reporting about a metre more. Large snowfalls are expected in the Swiss Alps over the next 48 hours which could add close to a metre of fresh snow by the end of the weekend. Pyrenees It's officially the start of the ski season in the Pyrenees on Saturday and Grandvalira in Andorra looks like it should open some terrain, although cover looks thin in places, being augmented by snow cannons. There have been plenty of natural snow storms in the region through November and further south Sierra Nevada down by the med has turned white once again thanks to a big snowstorm down there. Scandinavia It has warmed up a bit in the past few days but overall things are good in Scandinavia with the majority of ski areas now open, including almost all of the big names. There's been fresh snow (5-15cm) across the area in the past few days and Geilo in Norway is posting the biggest base so far at 80cm, with most other resorts reporting 30-60cm bases – not bad for November. Scotland It's looking very promising for the ski season to start in Scotland very soon. It's difficult to know which area will be first as all five of the Highland ski centres are in fairly good shape with white slopes and more snow and low temperatures forecast. As we compile this there's just not quite enough. Cairngorm have also said their snowmaking system is working away whilst Glencoe and Glenshee have both noted people hiking up (and in Glencoe's case using the access chair) to get up then ski down on slopes not yet officially open. North America Canada Things are looking up in Canada as the country's four largest ski areas of Whistler, Lake Louise, Sunshine and Sun Peaks are all now open and resorts in Quebec are also reported to be close to opening – with Tremblant confirming it's opening on the 24th. Whistler decided to open a day early and the FIS have allowed Lake Louise to stage its second weekend of world cup racing, for the ladies, when they were still cancelling the men's event to the south in Colorado. It remains slightly complicated though as whilst BC resorts like Kicking Horse and Revelstoke both report more than 2.5m of snowfall pre-season-to-date, most of that fell in October and lower slopes at some areas are only now getting a snowy covering – hence the delayed openings to date at some resorts despite big snowfall stats. But hopefully the large snowfalls in recent days mark an end to the mixed messages. USA It's a big opening week ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday in the USA and thankfully there have been colder temperatures, fresh snow and some good snowmaking conditions across the country allowing about 50 ski areas to open since last weekend, with several dozen more opening over the next few days. There have been some significant snowfalls, the biggest claimed by Boreal at Tahoe in California with two feet in two days over the weekend, but there's been some snow from west to east coasts and ski areas have been opening across the country. It's not all good news though, cover remains fairly marginal in Colorado for example and the FIS cancelled planned World Cup racing from Beaver Creek and Vail delayed opening due to poor snow cover there. |
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Great, now I have mower envy! Mine's about 70" but only about 0.25HP... and he's skived off to Uni so the lawn isn't looking so great now. |
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Absolutely cracking deal for anyone able to get to Saas Fee twice or more in a year (including their long summer season).
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In common with a number of French resorts this season, Les Arcs are doing much to promote alternative forms of skiing - with Les Arcs featuring a number of initiatives to introduce ski touring to more people. For the last weekend of January, the resort will host a 3-day event.
Press Release follows... The Big Up & Down featuring Killian Jornet returns to Les Arcs. 
Photo : M.Daviet The Big uP & Down, a three-day ski touring event returns to Les Arcs for the third edition from 27-29 January 2017. Join the world's most famous ski mountaineer Killian Jornet and Les Arcs team rider Enak Gavaggio, for this original ski touring race and to share a weekend focusing on all aspects of this growing sport. Three events on Friday, Saturday and Sunday will attract a mixture of participants, from recreational ski tourers to serious ski-mo racers. The Big uP & Down will bring together hundreds of ski tourers on the same slopes with the same spirit. During the weekend there will be something for everyone: Friday 27 January evening -the Kilianometre: an ascent open to everyone and led by the trail-running and ski-mountaineering champion Kilian Jornet himself. Saturday 28 January evening - the Belle Montée: untimed, everyone at their own pace, a little climb by the light of head torches and supervised by instructors. Do it with your friends, to make new ones, for a laugh and of course before the downhill run, some hot soup. Sunday 29 January - the Big Nak designed and laid out by Enak Gavaggio for endurance skiing, over part of the les Arcs ski area. On the menu: some slices of downhill and little morsels of uphill. All with two options: the light version or the XXL version. Throughout the weekend: A Brands Test Village on the snow front, to discover & test the ski touring range of fifteen brands. Workshops to learn about the safety and with supervised introductions. This year, there will also be a "Girls Only" element, dedicated to girls who want an introduction to ski touring or who want to hone their skills, all supervised by champions Caroline Freslon and Liv Sansoz who are happy to share their passion. As part of La Belle Montée the professionals will be leading a group of girls to enjoy the event. As ski touring continues to rise in popularity, Les Arcs has joined this revolution, creating more dedicated ski touring pistes in the resort. A new ski touring piste opening this season is added to the pre-existing 'La Trace' in Arcs 1600.
For more information and to sign up, visit www.bigupanddown.com |
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