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Most unstable snowpack in a decade - 19th December 2013

Most unstable snowpack in a decade - 19th December 2013

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Started by Admin in Avalanche Safety - 3 Replies

J2Ski

Admin posted Dec-2013

With heaps of fresh snow now in the forecast, through to the end of the month, what's not to like? :?:

The base it's falling on is the answer.

If you're likely to leave the piste (even by a few metres), then you need to read this.

Experts, in many parts of The Alps, are warning that the last few weeks of generally cold and clear conditions have left a base snowpack that will not easily bond with any new snow.

Henry (of Henry's Avalanche Talks) has this to say :-

Sometimes a bit of time helps the snowpack to settle and strengthen. This is NOT the case at the moment in the Northern French Alps.

Each day (and especially cold night) that has gone by, without snowfall over the last 3 or 4 weeks, has made the snowpack less consolidated. It has made the skiing nicer the more sugary the snow has become BUT with the next snowfall on top, this current sugary snowpack will be a very, very weak layer underneath. If you are not thinking about what you are doing and applying basic avalanche safety/prevention measures, it will be very dangerous.


...and has posted this video taken a few days ago...



See Attention Off-Piste and Touring Enthusiasts from HAT.

The unpredictable nature of the current base (ahead of fresh snow expected today) has been tragically illustrated already this week with a fatal avalanche in Lech (with prevailing Avalanche Risk Level at the lowest - Level One).

There are more observations from PisteHors :-

Conditions at the moment are very similar to the start of the 2005 / 2006 season which saw a record 57 avalanche deaths in France. A thin snow-pack with very strong temperature gradients. On all slope aspects except south the snow pack is composed of a weak faceted layer.


Stay safe - don't think it'll never happen to you; do some research (on the excellent resources linked to above), attend one of the numerous free talks around The Alps, and get educated (and equipped).

And always... take local advice before leaving the piste.
The Admin Man

Wanderer
reply to 'Most unstable snowpack in a decade - 19th December 2013'
posted Dec-2013

I know very little about this subject and it is mainly not too important as I don't/can't really do off-piste.

A quick question for the experts: does the fact that the snowpack is currently so unstable mean that it will remain unstable for the rest of the season or will the "stability" level settle down with the right conditions over the next few weeks?

Admin
reply to 'Most unstable snowpack in a decade - 19th December 2013'
posted Dec-2013

Wanderer wrote:does the fact that the snowpack is currently so unstable mean that it will remain unstable for the rest of the season or will the "stability" level settle down with the right conditions over the next few weeks?

I'm in no way an expert, but this is my understanding...

It will stabilise to a degree as the weight of new snow compacts and transforms the current snow over time - but that time may be quite long depending on what happens next, and it will vary immensely from place to place.

A few weeks of mixed conditions, with low winds, would be nice but the forecast Xmas storms could leave some pretty sketchy conditions for a while... :shock: It's quite possible we'll see a few deep late-season avalanches releasing on this layer.

Local knowledge and advice is key to staying safe, as always, but keep an eye on the websites linked above to see how the situation develops.
The Admin Man

Andyhull
reply to 'Most unstable snowpack in a decade - 19th December 2013'
posted Dec-2013

Looks as if we are going to have December conditions in January. There are almost always a spate of early season triggered avalanches on unstable slopes.
With growing numbers of people as we enter the main part of the season I fear we'll be watching a number of tragic events unfold.
Please be careful out there.

Topic last updated on 20-December-2013 at 16:19