Accuracy of J2Ski's Powder Alarms

I used to love it when I got a Powder Alarm from J2Ski about the resorts I was interested in, generally because I was planning a trip there. But over recent years I have come to expect that only half at most of the advised snowfall will actually happen, if any at all. I know that mountain weather is very changeable but even bearing this in mind I have long been in doubt over J2Ski's reports.

I have recently been interested in the forecasts in Obergurgl and had Powder Alarms in my inbox yet now snow fell there. Today I had another alarm saying that 23cm is due over the next 4 days and looking closer they are forecasting much more over the next 14 days. However, Obergurgl's own website and others are nowhere near that optimistic.

The cynic in me is wondering whether this is a tactic used by J2Ski to get people visiting their site. Do others here feel similar to me about the accuracy of J2Ski's forecasting?

UPDATE
A few days have now passed since my original post. J2Ski initially forecast c.32cms I seem to recall, then a day or so later forecast 23cms still to fall, then a day or so later forecast 10cms for the following day. The reality was that only 10cm fell over this period. It should be noted that several other weather forecasts got it right whereas J2Ski had it wrong. As I said originally, I have noticed this trend over a number of years.

Furthy34 wrote:Today I had another alarm saying that 23cm is due over the next 4 days and looking closer they are forecasting much more over the next 14 days. However, Obergurgl's own website and others are nowhere near that optimistic.

Well let's see what actually falls? I notice Obergurgl's site appears to have taken down the statement they had earlier that there would be no snow of note for 4 days (I forget the exact wording). If you look at our 48 hour forecast it shows clear skies early doors (today) with snow later.

The skies were clear first thing this morning, but check the webcams; certainly looks like it's about to snow, if it isn't already :- https://www.obergurgl.com/panorama-cams-winter

If you look at the lovely visualizations of the model outputs on Ventusky (go to https://www.ventusky.com/?p=46.9;11.0;5&l=rain-ac&t=20170205/21&m=gem ), and put Obergurgl in as a location, you can see that it's on the edge of the current weather system pushing up from the South but does look likely to get regular light falls of snow over the next few days (as shown in our forecast). Maybe it won't run exactly like that, but it's what the forecast models are going for right now.


As you probably know, there's a lot of snow happening right now. We've sent out a lot of powder alarms but, if anything, it looks as if we've been under-forecasting the snow currently falling across much of The Alps. Here are some examples from my own Inbox of the last few days...

I got powder alarms this morning for Tignes (18cm over 2 days) and Les Deux Alpes (24cm over 2 days).

Looking at the webcams, they both look as if they've had close to - or more than - that already today (with more to come overnight and tomorrow) :-

http://www.les2alpes.com/en/webcams.html

https://tignes.roundshot.com/lac/

I also got an alarm on Friday for Alpe d'Huez (23cm over 2 days), and they're reporting 40cm fresh already by this morning ( https://twitter.com/alpedhuez?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw ).


We don't claim they're perfect, and we state repeatedly that anything beyond 48 hours is "subject to significant change and variable reliability". That's just the state of the science.

And if you get our daily updates (and not just the powder alarms), you'll regularly see "there is no significant snow in the forecast" when that's the case...

YMMV, and there are some locations the models sometimes struggle with (e.g. Serre Chevalier seems to have a climate all of it's own occasionally) but the locations I monitor don't seem too far off the mark.

And from a quick scan of what's going on this evening, and the latest forecasts for tonight (snow), I'd be surprised if places like the Aravis and Portes du Soleil aren't getting close to double what we were forecasting a few days ago.

Thank you Admin Man for your informative reply. I am very pleased to note there is a lot of method going into these reports and I will change to daily updates. The Ventusky site looks brilliant.

I have been reading J2ski's snow reports for at least 100 years, (is that right Admin?), and they are generally informative. It is weather. It changes.It is a forecast. not the ten o'clock news.

J2ski is a highly regarded site, and any suggestions that snow reports are geared towards attracting users are pretty low level.

I am reminded of the time, as a young instructor, someone asked Franz, our head instructor, when the next snow would arrive. "Wednesday morning, at 10.00 o'clock" (This was the previous Friday)
"Amazing! How do you know?"
"Well earlier this morning, I saw two crows flying upside down, and that told me when it will snow"

Come the following Wednesday, it started to snow, a few minutes after 10 o'clock.

I met with Franz again last summer, now in his 80s, he is still going strong, so he might be available for weather consultation Admin, if only to provide reassurance to some of your more doubtful readers.

Oh, another crow story. Last season, going up a chairlift in Vail, a crow flying towards us, suddenly turned a flew over our heads upside down.
"That crow will probably vote for Donald Trump", says I. Two Americans on the chairlift burst out laughing. The guy next to me got really angry, defending Trump. After a short conversation, it was established that he worked as a manager in a US investment bank.....

Some people still ski with their feet together....

Furthy34 wrote:Some people still ski with their feet together....

Yes they do, and J2Ski can confidently predict that people who can do things well - and enjoy doing them - will carry on doing them... see swallow-tail snowboards, monoskis, snow-scooters, sportscars without traction control, etc... 8)

No idea what relevance that has to anything TBH, but let's get back on topic...

Obergurgl are reporting they had 10cm overnight (on the mountain) and it's clearly still snowing. Our forecast has revised to 8cm expected today, v.light snow tomorrow and a further fall on Wednesday.

Elsewhere... there's been shedloads of snow all over everywhere! 8)

Thanks Admin Man, I am following events in Obergurgl with interest. As I said in my OP I certainly respect that mountain weather is very dynamic and often difficult to predict, but my thoughts on your forecasts have been borne from many trips not just this latest one and my perception is that the amount of snowfall is often over estimated. Nevertheless I find them interesting.

With regards to skiing with feet clamped together..............let's just say it was a rather childish and pathetic attempt to suggest that people who are of the opinion that that is the correct way to ski should not expect their opinion to be taken seriously in other matters.